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UNCHANGED SUMMARY: A number of Sentiment indicators are at, or close to a Bullish extreme which is a concern and the market is overbought. But both the LT and ST analysis remain positive. First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling marked and that hasn’t happened since mid December.
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: has spent the majority of the last three weeks printing time below 117.15, the major poc, which is weak price location.
Oil USO: has worked off some of its technical “overboughtness” and is currently holding above the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. Momentum indicator turning back up would be a positive for this chart if it holds that level.
Gold GLD: has broken below the 161.0 major poc. This is weak price location.
Silver SLV: rallied to 31.25, its major poc Resistance, twice in January and has failed at that level. This chart, like GLD, is in a weak price location.
Dollar Index: in a stronger price location if it can hold above 80.15, the major level.
EURUSD: printed a sixteen day low on Friday and currently prints below 1.3416 (1/2R off 2010 low).
ES analysis:
Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. ES closed the week within Mon-Wed hi-lo range which indicates no bias on this timeframe.
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*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for all Major Market Charts. %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 82% and Nasdaq 77%. UK 86%. Numbers >50 are supportive. Numbers>80 usually considered overbought.
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*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
02/15: AAII (public poll) reported both Bulls% and Bears% as slightly lower. Bulls at 42.3% and Bears at 28.7%. The Nett (Bulls-Bears) was slightly higer at 13.6 but three weeks ago reached its highest since February last year.
02/15: Investor’s Intelligence Bulls% was slightly lower at 52.6% from last week’s 54.7% which was the highest since February last year. Bears% was unchanged at 21.1%, the lowest since May last year. The nett (Bulls-Bears) was down slightly at 31.5 from last week’s 33.6 which was the highest since May 2011. The 4wkma of nett at 32.00 is the highest since May 2011.
02/15: Market Vane (advisers) poll. Slightly lower at 68 (from 69). The 4wkma reached 68.5 which is the highest since 2007.
02/15: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in at 104.25 w/e 02/01 which was the highest it has been (a number above 100 represent an average position which is leveraged). This week the number is 89.85 which is lower again but still extremely high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
02/15: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 4.37. The ratio reached 4.81 on 01/30 which was the highest reading since 28th September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
02/15: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $599 million in the week to 13th February. We lost a smaller inflow number five weeks ago so the 4wk flow number is a little higher this week at $22.30 Billion. Down from the extraordinary $34.19 Billion in the four weeks to w/e 1st February but still extremely high.
02/15: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.4 Billion in the week to 13th February. The 4wk flow number is down from the peak two weeks ago which was the highest in my database.
Volatility: VIX
02/15: Intraday low on Friday was 12.24, the lowest since 2007
Option Ratios:
02/15: OEX Calls%_10dyma reached a 12month low, usually considered to be a smart-money indicator.