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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: ES found day session Support last week at our First Level LT Support at 1949.00. On Friday ES auctioned higher to close above the minor poc at 1967.50 and pre-open today prints close to that area of price. I have that level marked as potential Support or Resistance at the start of this week which may provide a clue re ST direction. In the LT we can still say that if ES holds above 1949.00 (now proven Support) it is in a strong price location.
Stock Index ETFs: Key chart IWM also found Support last week at the given level of the 2yr poc at 112.30. Price printing time below here would be an indication of further weakness.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP market Timing System stayed neutral for Nyse and stayed negative for Nasdaq, R2000 and U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57%, Nasdaq 49%, R2000 48%, UK 34%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
07/18: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower for the second week at 32.4%. Bears% was almost unchanged at 28.5%. Up from 21.1% three weeks ago which was the lowest Bears% since the end of last year.
07/18: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 56.6%. Five week’s ago Bulls% reached 62.6% which was an extreme high number. Bears% was almost unchangd at 15.1% with the extreme low being 14.1% at the end of last year.
07/18: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 66 which is the highest reading since the start of the year
07/18: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 81.91
Mutual Fund Flow:
07/18: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.15, a nineteen day low. The ratio reached 10.07 on 06/26 which is the highest in my database
07/18: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $4.3 Billion in the week to 16th July
VIX
07/18: VIX finished the week at 12.06. Intraday on Thursday it reached 15.38, a sixty five day high. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007