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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES analysis:
Thursday’s red-at-bottom low was tested on Friday and the Value Areas for both days were generated entirely below the 1949 poc which indicates Sellers in control of the dayframe. Friday closed below the Mon-Wed Hi-Lo Range which indicates Sellers active on the weekly timeframe.
However, there is close Major Support on Key Charts which should be monitored closely this week, e.g. see charts for DIA, XLF, XLK. If these levels are broken a major change in trend could be occuring here. Significant Buyers have been absent for sixteen days and until Effective Buying (green) is marked again (preferably above 1949) I will remain very cautious.
*********** BREADTH
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CP Market Timing System. All major Market Charts are now negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 25%, Nasdaq 29%, R2000 23%, UK 26%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
08/01: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly higher at 31.1%. Bears% was also higher at 31.1%. Up from 21.1% five weeks ago which was the lowest Bears% since the end of last year.
08/01: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 55.6%. SEven week’s ago Bulls% reached 62.6% which was an extreme high number. Bears% was lower at 16.2% with the extreme low being 14.1% at the end of last year.
08/01: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 64. Previous wek’s 66 was the highest reading since the start of the year
08/01: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 81.62
Mutual Fund Flow:
08/01: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.43 having reached 10.47 on Tuesday, the highest in my database.
08/01: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $7.6 Billion in the week to 30th July
08/01: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of -$303 Million in the week to 30th July
VIX
08/01: VIX reached 17.57 intraday on Friday, the highest reading since April. On 07/03 it closed at 10.32, the lowest since Feb 2007