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Both the LT and ST analysis remain positive. First sign of weakness would be “Effective” Selling and that has not been marked since mid December.
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: is now printing well above 117.15, the major poc, which is much stronger price location. Momentum is up and positive.
Oil USO: two weeks ago broke below the 1/2R and poc Resistance around 34.17. This chart is in a weak price location.
Gold GLD: has shown weakness since it broke below 161.0, the major poc, three weeks ago. Has now printed its lowest level since July last year. Momentum remains down.
Silver SLV: recently printed its lowest level since August last year. Momentum is still down.
Dollar Index: on Friday printed its highest level since August last year. In a strong price location above 81.35, the 1/2R off 2012 high.
EURUSD: on Friday printed its lowest level since early December.
ES analysis:
Both Buyers and Sellers have been active over recent days. Last week I marked Significant Buyers twice and Significant Sellers twice.
On Friday Buyers Responded (green-at-bottom) early in the session. New short trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Sellers are marked again.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System stayed positive for all Major Market Charts. The %Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67%, Nasdaq 62%, UK 82%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/01: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% sharply lower at 28.4% (from 41.8%). That’s the fifth week lower. And Bears% higher at 36.6%, which is a fourteen week high. The Nett (Bulls-Bears) at -8.2 means there are more Bears than Bulls for the first time in fourteen weeks.
03/01: Investor’s Intelligence Bulls% was lower for the third week at 46.3% which is a twelve week low although the 54.7% recorded threeweeks ago was the highest since February last year. Bears% was also lower (slightly) at 21.1% which is the lowest since May last year.
03/01: Market Vane (advisers) poll. Lower at 65, from 69 last week which was the highest since 2007.
03/01: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) came in lower than last week at 82.77 (from 91.07). This is still a high reading. The highest reading in the database being 104.25 four weeks ago.
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/01: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 3.59. The 40day low for this number is 3.49. The ratio reached 5.22 on 02/13 which was the highest reading since September. The highest reading in my database at 5.64 was in early April 2012.
03/01: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$940 Miin the week to 27th February. We lost a large inflow number four weeks ago so the 4wk flow number (yellow) has fallen sharply.
03/01: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.8 Billion in the week to 27th February. Again, we lost a large inflow number four weeks ago so the 4wk flow number (yellow) has fallen.