Chartprofit eBook 21st March 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and Significant Buying once. Although there was another failed probe above 1872 on Friday enough time was printed there to lift the 2mn poc to that level. This is now First Level Resistance. Effective Selling marked below ES 1835.50, the six month poc, would be a sign of weakness in the longer timeframe but at the start of this week this Support has held.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: The CP Market Timing System turned back to positive for Nyse, remained neutral for Nasdaq and R2000, and remained negative for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 67%, UK 45% . Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/21: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 36.8%. Bears% was slightly lower at 26.1%
03/21: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 52%. Bears% was unchanged at 17.4%. The 4wkma of nett at 37 is moving back up. The highest waqs 45.3 at the start of the year.
03/21: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 62
03/21: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 89.84
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/21: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 7.85. On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
03/21: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $4.6 Billion in the week to 19th March.
The 4wk flow number is $31.1 Billion with the highest 4wk flow in my database being $40.4 Billion last August
03/21: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.8 Billion in the week to 19th March