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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
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ES analysis: Last week the 4mn poc migrated back to 2033.50. As long as ES holds above this level it is in a strong price location. Significant Buying has been marked four times in the last five days.
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
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*********** BREADTH
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Breadth: CP Market Timing Chart remained negative for all U.S. major Market Charts and remained positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49%, Nasdaq 46%, R2000 48%, UK 77%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
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*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
01/23: AAII (public poll). Bulls% is lower at 37.1%, which is a sixteen week low and Bears% is higher at 30.8% which is a fourteen week high. The nett is therefore 6.3 which is sixteen week low. The 4wk average of nett is at 19.15 is a twelve week low.
01/23: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 49% but down from a high of 56.4% three weeks ago. Bears% was also higher at 17.4% which is a thirteen week high. The ratio of Bulls/Bears is currently 2.8 which is a high level of optimism historically but also a thirteen week low.
01/23: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 59
01/23: The NAAIM Exposure Index: has been very volatile recently. Three weeks ago the index reached 95.86 which was almost a twelve month high. Two weeks ago it fell more than 24 points to 71.1 and one week ago it was back up at 87.73. This week the index has fallen back to 76.23.
Mutual Fund Flow:
01/23: Bear fund assets that I follow were down 18% on Friday. My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 11.50 which historically is very high. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.
01/23: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$5.9 Billion in the week to 21st January. This is the third week of net outflows and we lost a big inflow five weeks ago from the 4wk flow number which consequently fell sharply to -$20.50 Billion which is a number more typical of market lows.