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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which does not indicate a bias on the weekly timeframe. Active Sellers have not been marked on this timeframe during 2013.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling once and no Significant Buying. Friday generated an overlapping/lower, narrower Value Area. First Level Support at 1626 has held. Significant Selling marked below this level would be an indication of weakness on the longer timeframe. Bulls would hope the Support holds. On Friday, there was no Significant Buying to mark on the ES chart but I did mark Responsive Buying on the R2000 Futures chart.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. Pre-open is printing below the major poc at 117.15. Time printed below this level is weak price location. Momentum is down and negative.
Oil USO: Currently printing below the Resistance around 34.20 which is weak price location. Momentum, although positive is down.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply last month to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again last week. Momentum is negative and down.
Silver SLV: Last week printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative and down.
Dollar Index: Last week printed its highest level since July 2010. Momentum is positive and up.
EURUSD: currently holding the major poc Support at 1.2777. However, Momentum is negative and down.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers on Friday: Nyse 70% (week’s high 82%), Nasdaq 68% (week’s high 71.83), R2000 72% (week’s high 77.06), UK 72% (week’s high 82%). Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
5/24: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was sharply higher at 49% (from 38.5%) which is the highest since April 2011. Bears% was lower at 21.6% which is the lowest since February 2012. The ratio of Bulls to Bears is therefore 2.3, this is the highest since February 2012 and historically is a very high number.
05/24: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 55.2% which is a fourteen week high. Bears% was lower at 18.8%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) at 36.4 is the highest since May 2011. The 4wk ma of nett has now exceeded the peak it reached in February which I take as a warning.
05/24: Market Vane (advisers) poll was slightly lower at 69. Last week’s 70 was the highest since 2007. 4wk ma has equalled but not exceeded the February peak.
05/24: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly lower at 82.02. Last week’s 84.23 was a nine week high. The highest number in the database was104.25 in early February.
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/24: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.03. Wednesday’s ratio was 5.43 and I only have two readings higher than this in the database which were were at the market highs in April and September last year.
05/24: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $6.4 Billion in the week to 24th May. The 4wk sum is at $29.6 Billion which is an extremely high number.
05/24: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.5 Billion in the week to 22nd May
Option Ratios: