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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Significant Buying was marked four times last week and Significant Selling has not been marked for nine days. Pre-open today First Level Resistance at 1962 was probed and ES is lower from there. A Key Chart/Level this week is IWM 111.64 (poc). Chart stalled at this level last week. Price above111.64 would be a confirming positive. A further confirming positive would be Breadth numbers improving above 50% (see below).
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for all major Market charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43%, Nasdaq 38%, R2000 46%, UK 27% Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
10/24: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was higher for the third week running at 49.7% (from 42.7%). Bears% had quite a fall; down to 22.5% from (33.7%). So the nett was up 18.2 at 27.2 which is an eight week high. This poll didn’t any indicate any real fear recently as the market fell.
10/24: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower for the sixth consecutive week at 35.3% (from 37.8%). Bears% was higher at 18.2% (from 17.3%). The nett at 17.1 is a twelve month low indicating some pessimism here
10/24: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 56. Last week’s 52 was the lowest single reading since June 2012
10/24: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active moneymanagers) was higher at 41.38. Up from previous week’s 9.97 which was the lowest since 2011
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/24: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.15. On 10/16 the ratio fell to 5.13 which was a six month low.
10/24: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$8.2 Billion in the week to 22nd October. The 4wk flow is a negative -22.50 Billion which is an extremely low reading