Chartprofit eBook 26th April

*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION

Friday closed within Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range so no bias indicated on the weekly timeframe.

ES Analysis: The most recent imbalance is the Signifcant Buying marked last Monday so new short trades have been eliminated for me since the Open on Tuesday.

First Level Support = ES 1562 (1/2R off recent high)

Second Level Support = ES 1548.50 (5mn poc)

Dayframe: 15day poc moved to 1576. May provide intraday Support or Resistance at the start of this week.

Index ETFs: Last week saw an improvement in price location with ES and the four major index ETFs ending the week above their 1/2R levels off recent high.  We monitor these 1/2R levels as follows: SPY 156.62; DIA 146.51; IWM 92.04; QQQ 68.52.

Supporting Charts:

Bonds TLT: KEY CHART.  Has stalled at the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. If chart can print time above this level it would be stronger price location.  Momentum is positive but down.

Oil USO: Attempting to print above the Resistance at 33.10 (1/2R off last year’s low). Momentum is negative but up.

Gold GLD: Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years.  Momentum is negative but has turned up.

Silver SLV:  Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and this month has printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but has turned up.

Dollar Index: KEY CHART.  Currently ranging and volatile. Is currently printing below the 2month poc at 82.75.  LT strong location if it holds above the 81.35 1/2R level.  Momentum is negative but up.

EURUSD: Currently printing just above the 24mn poc at 1.3070.  Momentum is positive but down.

Watching particularly TLT and Dollar Index.  Charts are mixed but I would say they imply a slight positive bias for equities.

*********** BREADTH

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Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for Nyse; turned positive from neutral for Nasdaq and stayed neutral for UK.

%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 56% Nasdaq 51% R2K 48%.  Numbers >50 are considered supportive.

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*********** SENTIMENT

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Consensus Polls:

04/26: AAII (public poll).  Bulls% was slightly higher at 28.3%;    Bears% was lower at 38.8% (from 48.2%).  Two weeks ago the readings reached extreme 19.3% Bulls and 54.5% Bears.  The 4wk ma of nett (Bulls-Bears) is approaching the lowest reached over last few years.

04/26: Investors Intelligence.  Bulls% was lower at 44.3% (from 47.4%). Bears% also lower at 19.6% (from 20.6%).

04/26: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 66, from 65.  Six weeks ago it reached 69 which was the highest since 2007.

04/26: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was almost unchanged at 69.90. Previous week’s  69.63 was the lowest since w/e 30th Nov.

Mutual Fund Flow:

04/26: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.59.  Thursday’s ratio at 3.27 was the lowest since 4th Jan.

04/26: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of -$7.3 Billion in the week to 24th April.   That’s the largest single week outflow since w/e 23rd Nov.

04/26: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.1 Billion in the week to 24th April.