Chartprofit eBook 21st March 2014
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: In the last three weeks I have marked Significant Selling seven times and Significant Buying twice and yet there has been no obvious breakdown in price meaning Sellers have been active but so far ineffective on the longer timeframe. Support at the 1835.50 poc was briefly tested and rejected on Thursday, as was SPY’s 184.32 equivalent Support. Important levels to moinitor. Price Momentum and Breadth deteriorated last week and Significant Selling marked below 1835.50 would be a further negative in the LT.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System. All Major Market Charts are now negative.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 42%, R2000 48%, U.K. 45%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
03/28: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 31.2%. Bears% was higher at 28.6%
03/28: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 54.7%. Bears% was almost unchanged at 17.5%. The 4wkma of nett at 37.25 is moving back up. The highest was 45.3 at the start of the year.
03/28: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 61 (from 62)
03/28: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was slightly higher at 91.12
Mutual Fund Flow:
03/28: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 6.78. On 03/13 the ratio reached 8.39 which is the highest ratio in my database. The Rydex traders are extremely bullish and historically this has been a warning for the market.
03/28: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$379 Million in the week to 26th March.
03/28: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.7 Billion in the week to 26th March