Chartprofit eBook:
https://chartprofit.com/ebook/130531_Charts.zip
The DNL Reader is required to view the eBook.
If you do not have this program please download it here:
www.digitalwebbooks.com/reader/
pdf version available
https://chartprofit.com/ebook/ChartProfit_130531.pdf
*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
SPY closed on Friday below Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range (although Monday was a holiday) which indicates Sellers Active on the weekly timeframe for the first time this year.
ES Analysis: from pre-open today. On Friday I marked Aggressive selling again (red-at-bottom). The Value Area was overlapping/lower than Thursday’s and at the top of Friday’s range so this isn’t convincingly Effective Selling. Even so new long trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again. Friday’s low came in at First Level Support (1626) and first sign of weakness in the LT would be time printed below that level. In the ST, price below 1653 (poc) is weak price location, Bulls would want to see price back above that level.
Stock Index ETFS: At the start of this week it is worth monitoring price relative to the following 30day pocs as a guide to ST strong/weak price location.
SPY 166.15, IWM 97.87, QQQ 73.42, DIA 152.69.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: KEY CHART. printing below the major poc at 117.15. Time printed below this level is weak price location. Last week chart reached its lowest level since April 2012.
Oil USO: Currently printing below the Resistance around 34.20 which is weak price location. Momentum is now negative and down.
Gold GLD: Fell steeply in April to its lowest level for two years and that level was approached again in May.
Silver SLV: In May printed its lowest level since October 2010.
Dollar Index: In May printed its highest level since July 2010. Currently holding above the 82.75 poc.
EURUSD: currently holding the major poc Support at 1.2777. There is Resistance just above last week’s high at 1.3070, the 24mn poc. Momentum, although negative, has turned up.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61%, Nasdaq 67%, R2000 68%, UK 69%. Numbers >50 are considered supportive. Numbers >80 are considered overbought
*********** SENTIMENT
Sentiment indicators have been flashing a warning.
Consensus Polls:
05/31: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was sharply lower at 36% but the previous weeks 49%.was the highest since April 2011. Bears% was higher at 29.6% but the previous week’s 21.6% was the lowest since February 2012. The ratio of Bulls to Bears is now 1.2 but previous week it reached 2.3 which was the highest since February 2012.
05/31: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 52.1% from previous week’s 55.2% which was a fourteen week high. Bears% was slightly higher at 19.8%. The nett (Bulls-Bears) therefore 32.3 down from previous week’s 36.4 which was the highest since May 2011. The 4wk ma of nett is above the peak it reached in February and I take that as a warning.
05/31: Market Vane (advisers) poll was slightly lower at 67. The number reached 70 two weeks ago which was the highest since 2007. 4wk ma has equalled but not exceeded the February peak.
05/31: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 77.19. Two week’s ago ratio reached 84.23 which was was a nine week high. The highest number in the database was104.25 in early February.
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/31: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.05. Previous week the ratio reached 5.43 and I only have two readings higher than that in the database. These were at the market highs in April and September last year.
05/31: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund outflows of $591 million in the week to 31st May. The 4wk sum is at $22.41 Billion which is down from previous week’s 4wk sum at $29.6 Billion which was an extremely high number.
05/31: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $517 million in the week to 29th May