Chartprofit eBook 3rd May
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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
Friday closed Mon-Wed Hi-Lo range which indicates Active, Effective Buying on the weekly timeframe.
ES Analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying twice and Significant Selling once. Thursday’s Buying was the most recent imbalance and therefore new short trades are eliminated for me at least until Significant Selling is marked again.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds TLT: Has stalled and turned down from the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high. Momentum is positive but down.
Oil USO: Has rallied to the important Resistance around 34.20 (see chart). Time printed above this level would put the chart back into a strong price location. Momentum has turned positive.
Gold GLD: Has fallen steeply this month to its lowest level for two years. Momentum is negative but up.
Silver SLV: Has been weak since it double-failed at its maj poc in January and last month printed its lowest level since October 2010. Momentum is negative but up.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. Currently printing below the 2month poc at 82.75 and above the 1/2R level at 81. Breakout above or below these levels will likley indicate next directional move.
EURUSD: Currently printing just above the 24mn poc at 1.3070. Momentum is positive but down.
*********** BREADTH
Chartprofit Market Timing System is positive for all major Market Charts.
%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 68% Nasdaq 58% R2K 59%. UK 65. Numbers >50 are considered supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
05/03: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was slightly higher at 31%; Bears% was lower at 35.9%.). The nett (Bulls-Bears) is therefore -4.9 and the 4wk ma of nett at -18 is the lowest since mid 2009.
05/03: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 47.9% (from 44.3%). Bears% was lower at 18.8% (from 19.6%).
05/03: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 67, from 66. Seven weeks ago it reached 69 which was the highest since 2007.
05/03: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was higher at 80.61 (from 69.90). This is a seven week high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
05/03: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 4.36. Ratio reached a low of 3.22 on 4th Jan and a high of 5.22 on 13th Feb.
05/03: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $6.6 Billion in the week to 1st May.
05/03: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $1.9 Billion in the week to1st May