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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES Analysis: Buyers Reacted (green-at-bottom) on Thursday. On Friday ES opened just below the 1949 poc and immediately rallied with the Value Area being generated entirely above that level. Pre-open today ES has probed the 1967 poc and price printing time above that level would put the chart in a ST stronger price location. Breadth numbers and momentum (PriceOsc) are still weak so I will wait for Effective Buying to be marked before considering the long side on any timeframe, see Friday’s comments.
Key Charts/Levels: Key Charts/Levels: Pre-open today (Monday) IWM is printing below 111.64 (2yr poc) in a weak price location. DIA prints just above 170.38 (18mn poc) which woulod be stronger price location if it can hold that level. See also Key Charts TLT and USO, below.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing System remained negative for all Major Market charts.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 24%, Nasdaq 30%, R2000 25%, U.K. 28%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
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Consensus Polls:
10/03: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower this week at 34.4% (from 41.8%). Bears% was higher at 30.9% (from 28.2%).
Five weeks ago Bears% fell to 19.2% which was the lowest this year.
10/03: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was slightly lower at 47.5%. Bears% was also slightly lower at 15.1%. Four weeks ago Bears% fell to 13.3% which was the lowest since 1987
10/03: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 58, a twenty four week low, having reached 66 four weeks ago which was the highest reading since the start of the year.
10/03: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was lower at 41.03, a 12 month low.
Mutual Fund Flow:
10/03: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.17. The highest ratio being 10.47 On 07/29
10/03: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$10.4 Billion in the week to 1st October. That’s the largest single week outflow since w/e 08/08.