Chartprofit eBook 5th April

Breadth is mixed with the R2000 Market Chart turning neutral and the Nasdaq %Stocks>50dyma number falling below 50 (see below). Most index ETF charts closed the week above Wednesday’s low so this does not indicate a bias on the weekly timeframe. I have not marked Sellers Active on this timeframe so far in 2013.  There was weakness last week but technically there has yet to be a breakdown.  In the ES analysis the 5mn poc migrated to 1548.50 and price relative to that level will indicate strength/weakness at the start of the week.

*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION

Supporting Charts:

Bonds TLT: On Friday printed a new high for the year to date and probed the obvious Resistance at 123.42, the 1/2R off last July’s high.  This Resistance has not yet been overcome.  Momentum is positive and up.

Oil USO: prints back below 34.17, the 1/2R and 3year poc. Momentum (although positive) is down.

Gold GLD: Last week printed its lowest level since the May low last year.  Momentum is now negative and down.

Silver SLV:  Still in a weak price location printing below 27.87, the 12mn poc and last week printed its lowest level since last July.

Dollar Index: very volatile; now printing back below the 2month poc at 82.75. Momentum (although positive) is down.

EURUSD: appears to have found Support at the Major poc at 1.2777.  Price below that level would be extremely weak price location.   The positive divergence between PriceOsc and Price was confirmed last week by the indicator turning up (although still negative).

ES analysis:

Last week I marked Significant Selling twice and no Significant Buying.  ES was auctioned back up to First Level Resistance at 1549 through Friday’s session but even so the Value Area was lower and wider.  The most recent imbalance was Wednesday’s Aggressive Selling so before considering the long side I need to see Buyers marked again and preferably above 1548.50 which is now the 5month poc.  This level could be intraday Support or Resistance at the start of this week and that could be a clue re ST direction.

*********** BREADTH

Breadth: Chartprofit Market Timing System remained positive for all Nyse, Nasdaq Major Market Charts. Turned neutral for R2000 and turned negative for UK.

%Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53%, Nasdaq 48%.  UK 47%. Numbers >50 are supportive.

*********** SENTIMENT

Consensus Polls:

04/05: AAII (public poll) reported Bulls% lower again at 35.5% (from 36.4%).  Highest Bulls% recently was 52.3% nine weeks  ago.  Bears% was slightly lower at 28.2%.

04/05: Investors Intelligence reported Bulls% higher at 52% (from 49.5%). Bears% slightly lower at 19.4%. Two weeks ago the  Bears raeched 18.6% Bears which was the lowest since mid May 2011.

04/05: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 67.  Reached  69 three weeks ago which was the highest since 2007.

04/05: The NAAIM number (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) was sharply  lower this week at 72.71 which is an 18week low – lowest since w/e 30th Nov.

Mutual Fund Flow:

04/05: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio finished the week at 3.94. The 60day low for this number is 3.49.  Recent high for  the ratio was on 13th Feb at 5.22.

04/05: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund inflows of $2.2 Billion in the week to 3rd April.   The four week flow number is at  $14.05 Billion.

04/05: lipperusfundflows ex_ETFs reported Equity Fund inflows of $3 Billion in the week to 3rd April.