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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant (but Ineffective) Selling twice and Significant Buying once. Buyers Reacted (green-at-bottom) below 1990 for the second time in six days. If ES holds above 1998.50 it is in a strong price location in the ST and as long as it holds above 1949 it is in a string price location in the LT.
A Key Chart to monitor at the start of this week is IWM. Chart needs to hold above 115.41, 1/2R off July high, to maintain a strong price location. Last month Key Charts found low at their given Support and have rallied strongly (see eBook). These proven levels will be useful to monitor.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth: CP Market Timing system turned neutral for Nyse, remained positive for Nasdaq and UK but turned negative for R2000.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60%, Nasdaq 54%, R2000 54%, UK 66%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
09/05: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower this week at 44.7% (from 51.9%). Bears% was higher at 24%, up from previous week’s 19.2% which was the lowest this year. The nett (Bulls minus Bears) is lower at 20.7 but previous week’s32.7 was extremely high with only one number higher than that in the last three years.
09/05: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was higher at 56.1%, up from previous week’s 52.5%. Bears% fell to 13.3% this week which is the lowest since 1987
09/05: Market Vane (advisers) poll was unchanged at 66 which is the highest reading since the start of the year.
09/05: The NAAIM Exposure Index (a measurement of average current equity exposure among active money managers) washigher at 82.49
Mutual Fund Flow:
09/05: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 8.9. The highest ratio being 10.47 On 07/29.
09/05: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) inflows of $4.5 Billion in the week to 3rd September. The 4wk flow number is at 21.8, much higher than recently due to having lost a large outflow number four weeks ago.