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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Buying once and no Significant Selling. The last three sessions generated Value Areas entirely above the 2033.50 poc. Breadth numbers (see below) and Price Momentum (see charts) have both improved. As long as ES holds above 2033.50 it is in strong price location and Significant Buying marked above that poc would be a further positive.
First Level Support = 2033.50 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 200.11 (8mn poc)
*********** BREADTH
CP Market Timing System turned positive for Nyse and R2000, turned neutral for Nasdaq and stayed positive for U.K.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 61%, Nasdaq 56%, R2000 59%, UK 78%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
02/06: AAII (public poll). Bulls% was lower at 35.5% (from 44.2%) – very close to the six month low which is 35.4. Bears% was higher at 32.2% (from 22.4%). The nett at 3.3 is a six month low.
02/06: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 49.0% (from 53.1%). Bears% was unchanged at 16.3%.
02/06: Market Vane (advisers) poll was higher at 61
02/06: The NAAIM Exposure Index: has been very volatile recently. This week the index was lower at 88.24. Five weeks ago the index reached 95.86 which was almost a twelve month high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
02/06: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 10.85. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.
02/06: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of -$7.1 Billion in the week to 4th February. There have been net outflows in four of the last five weeks. The 4wk flow number is at -$13.3 Billion. Two weeks ago the net 4wk outflow was -$20.50 Billion which I said at the time is a number more typical of market lows.