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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE / LOCATION
ES analysis: Last week I marked Significant Selling once. Significant Buying has not been marked for eight days. The 4mn poc migrated back down to 2035.00 and that is where ES closed on Friday. 2035.00 could be intraday Support or Resistance at the start of this week and price relative to this level should be monitored as a clue re ST direction.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2035.00 (4mn poc)
Major Support = 1962.00 (6mn poc) and SPY 197.20 (8mn poc)
*********** BREADTH
CP Market Timing System turned negatiove for Nyse and Nasdaq, turned neutral for R2000 and remained positive for UK.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 47%, Nasdaq 47%, R2000 48%, UK 64%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
*********** SENTIMENT
Consensus Polls:
01/09: AAII (public poll). Eight weeks ago Bulls% reached 57.9% which was the highest since December 2010. This was just before the market corrected in December. This week Bulls% is lower at 41% and Bulls% higher at 27.7% which represents quite a change in the nett (Bulls minus Bears) this week of -19.1. (only six higher negative nett weekly changes in last six years). This has not had a significant impact on the 4wk average of nett which imo is the most important indicator here.
01/09: Investors Intelligence. Bulls% was lower at 50.5% (from 56.4%). Bears% was just slightly higher at 15.2%. The ratio of Bulls/Bears is currently 3.3 which historically, is still a high level of optimism.
01/09: Market Vane (advisers) poll was lower at 56 (from 63)
01/09: The NAAIM Exposure Index: fell more than 24 points to 71.1. Down from previous week’s 95.86 which was almost a twelve month high.
Mutual Fund Flow:
01/09: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 10.17. We need to monitor this. This indicator registered little fear during the recent decline and historically it is still very high. In early December the ratio reached 13.73, the highest in the database.
01/09: lipperusfundflows reported Equity Fund (inc ETF) outflows of $12.3 Billion in the week to 7th January. This is the fifth largest single week outflow in two years but note that two week’s ago the $36.5 Billion inflow was the largest on record