This week’s the Investors Intelligence poll shows that newsletter writers are very bullish. Bulls at 51.6% is the highest %Bulls since early January 2008 and Bears were down to 19.8%, the lowest reading since the market top in October 2007.
Yesterday my Rydex Assets Ratio was back up to 2.7 which is very high. Noting the extreme volatilty in this indicator recently I ran a 10day moving average through it to smooth it out.
The average has just hit its highest level in the five years of data available.
In the longframe the above is cause for concern.
Maybe so is this: The following ETF charts made their lows in November earlier than the major U.S. Stock Indices which made their lows in March:
Emerging Markets (EEM), Broker Dealer (IAI), Semi-Conductors (SOX), China (FXI).
It is interesting that none of these charts have yet confirmed the SP500 breakout above the early August high.