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*********** PRICE PERFORMANCE
Weekly Structure: Last week was a week of No Directional Conviction. Previous week, W/e 09/23, was an Effective Selling week.
ES Market Profile analysis:
Last week I marked two instances of Significant Selling and one of Significant Buying. Enough time was spent at 1132 for the 40dy poc to migrate lower and, as mentioned pre-open Friday, this is most likely a bearish development especially if ES cannot print convincingly back above this level. On Friday a brief probe above 1st Level Resistance at 1147 was rejected. Today (Monday) again, a brief probe above 1st Level Resistance (this time at 1132) has also been rejected thus far today. Weak.
*********** PRICE LOCATION – Index ETFs
A number of POC levels on the major index ETFs have migrated lower, see charts. This is usually negative especially if the charts are printing below these levels which they currently are.
If the Index ETFs break their Major Support levels (see charts) it would put Equities in a very weak position.
*********** BREADTH
Breadth is not supportive. Chartprofit MarketTiming System for both Nyse and Nasdaq Market Charts remained negative for the eleventh consecutive week.
*********** SENTIMENT
General assessment: There are still lots of Bears but that has been the case for a few weeks now and the market has not rallied significantly. If the market does break to new lows here the Bearish Sentiment extremes seen at the July 2010 low will likely be tested. The market may need this before it can put in a decent low. See aaii, market vane, isee (equity only), VIX, Rydex, Rydex Money Market