emini 11th March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Overnight on Wednesday the 3month poc migrated slightly lower to 2785.5. The three Value Areas since then have been generated entirely below that level. The big Support is at 2718 (maj poc) and ES has approached (but not quite tested) that level. The equivalent poc Support for SPY is at 272.49 and this was very briefly tested on Friday. Price printing time below these levels would be a negative in the LT.
Market Charts: Nyse, Nasdaq and R2000 market charts all turned neutral this week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63%, Nasdaq 63%, R2000 61%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 18.52. Down from 18.68 on Wednesday, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: closed above 121.0, the major poc, on Friday. TLT needs to hold above this level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) and this is First Level Support. Index is printing close to that December high
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on Friday. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: The major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated back up to 1.3130 early last week. Is printing below that level in a weaker location.
EURUSD: the Maj Support at 1.131 (maj poc) was broken on Thursday. EURUSD is now in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
