emini 12th March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The major Support for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) has held with SPY briefly testing that level on Friday. There was a strong bounce on Monday up from that level and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. This is encoraging and as long as 2718 holds, ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Fist Level Support/Resistance today = 2785.50 (3mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 72% (from 63%), Nasdaq 68% (from 63%), R2000 68% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.0. Last week the ratio reached 18.68, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: closed above 121.0, the major poc, on Monday. TLT needs to hold above this level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) and this is First Level Support. Index is printing close to that December high
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on Friday. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: The major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated back up to 1.3130 early last week. GBPUSD spiked above that level earlier today, has retraced and is currently printing just above that poc.
EURUSD: the Maj Support at 1.131 (maj poc) was broken on Thursday. EURUSD is now in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
