emini 15th March 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
The major Support for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) held last week with SPY briefly testing that level. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Monday and ES has rallied this week. As long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 72%), Nasdaq 64% (from 68%), R2000 62% (from 67%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 18.40. Last week the ratio reached 18.68, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: closed at 121.0, the major poc, on Thursday. TLT needs to hold above this level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) in a strong position. This is First Level Support.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support. LT position is strong if GLD holds this poc.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support last week. Looks to have formed a higher low at the Support and this can be a strong pattern. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: The major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated back up to 1.3130 early last week and chart is printing above that poc. Resistance at 1.3400 (maj 1/2R).
EURUSD: price broke below 1.131 (maj poc) last week which put the chart in a weak position. This Resistance is curently being probed.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
