emini 16th July 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Friday. In an uptrend, the low of an Aggressive Buying day will usually hold. A day-session close below 3005, Friday’s low, would be the first indication of weakness but First Level Support is at 2957.00 the 1mn poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69% (from 72%), Nasdaq 59% (from 63%), R2000 59% (from 63%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 20.61. The market was higher last week and the ratio lower – not usually a bearish pattern in the ST. The 9month high for the ratio is close at 23.93, recorded early May. The ratio fell to 11.58 on 06/06, a three month low, having reached 23.93 on the 7th May, a seven month high.
Bonds – TLT: had been probing 132.80, the maj VAH, over last two weeks and now seems to have rejected that level with a sharp down day on Thursday.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00. A higher low above that level would be bullish.
Gold: 06/25 GLD printed its highest level since 2013.
Oil: USO – 06/20 the chart recovered back above 11.41, the major poc, a stronger position and Monday closed above 12.20 (1/2R off this year’s high).
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. Has today broken below 1.2481, the 30mn pocto print its lowest level since April 17.
EURUSD: early in the month the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.65. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level.
