emini 16th May 2019 – pre-open from ChartProfit
Value Areas have been generated below 2894, the 2month poc. This is a weak price location. Although I have not yet marked Significant Selling (red) I would want to see ES printing back above that level before considering the long side. Should ES fall further there is Support at 2774.0, the 12mn poc, and more important Support at 2718.0, the major poc.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 43% (from 41%), Nasdaq 41% (unch), R2000 45% (from 44%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 18.60. The ratio recently reached 23.93, a seven month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016.
Bonds – TLT: 03/28 TLT printed its highest level since December ’17. TLT is currently printing close to that high. In the longer-term as long as TLT holds above the 121 major Support it is in a strong position.
Dollar Index: 04/25 the index reached its highest level since May 2017, breaking above the highs of December and March around 97.7. However that breakout has not held and DXY has printed back below the level of those highs. There has not been a strong rejection to that test and DXY has been consolidating for thre weeks so a reversal at this point seems less liely. In the LT as long as the chart is printing above the major at 94.80 it is in a strong position.
Gold: GLD – has ben printing back above 121, the major poc, for seven days. Chart is in a strong position if it can hold that level.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and rallied strongly. On 04/23 closed at its highest level since October but has retraced from there. First Level Support is at 12.79, the 18mn – USO is currently holding that level.
GBPUSD: is in a weak position below 1.3130, the maj poc. Yesterday broke the Support at 1.2915, the 1/2R off this year’s low, and is lower today, printing its lowest level since mid-February.
EURUSD: in April printed its lowest level since June 2017 having broken below March’s low (1.1174). Price below 1.1310 keeps the chart in a weak LT position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 111.17. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level. Has fallen sharply this month.
