emini Wednesday 21st August 2019
Late in Tuesday’s session the Support at 2903 (1/2R off this year’s high) was briefly tested. The Value Area was generated entirely above that level and pre-open today ES has printed back up to probe 2927, the 4mn poc. As I wrote yesterday “Price relative to this level is important to monitor. Significant Buying (green) marked above the poc would be a positive sign and indicate a breakout of the recent range.”
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 36% (from 40%), Nasdaq 36% (from 40%), R2000 38% (from 42%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 17.79. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high last week.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. Resistance at 99.50, the Major VAH.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 to probe the major Resistance at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – Bulls would want to see time printed back above 11.41, the major poc.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and on last week chart printed its lowest level since Jan 2017.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. Earlier this month the chart printed its lowest level since May 2017.
USDJPY: is printing below 108.90, the major 1/2R off the 2016 low. Room for a rally but this is a weak position.
