emini 21st March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Early in the month there was a rejected test of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818, the major pocs for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) were subsequently tested. These Support levels held and the market has rallied from there – back to probe above the VAH once again. Acceptance (time) at this level or above would be bullish. As long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 60% (from 65%), Nasdaq 56% (from 62%), R2000 53% (from 58%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 19.84. Down from 20.19 on Tuesday which was the highest ratio since 4th October. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: held 121.0, the major poc, for eight days and on Wednesday closed at its highest level since 3rd Jan.
Dollar Index: on Wednesday broke below 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). Needs to recover this First Level Support to regain a strong position in the ST but as long as it prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support. LT position is strong if GLD holds this poc.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close at its highest level since November on Wednesday. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: has fallen back over the last few days and is currently printing at 1.3130, the major poc Support. Needs to hold this level to stay in a strong position.
EURUSD: chart is printing above 1.131 (maj poc) in a stronger position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
