Pre-open analysis for the S&P 500 emini 22nd June2016
Tuesday generated a lower Value Area following Monday’s rejected probe above the major poc at 2087. Significant Buying marked above this level would be a real positive. Price below the proven Support at 2041 would be a negative.
Dayframe: The minor (15 day) poc migrated to 2078 on Tuesday – price relative to this level may be a guide to intraday strength/weakness.
First Level Support/Resistance = 2087.00 (maj poc)
Second Level Support = 2041.00 (poc of current distribution)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 60%), Nasdaq 51% (from 53%), R2000 57% (from 61%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 4.27 (from 5.07). Risk aversion increasing ahead of the EU referendum vote. On 04/26 the ratio reached 5.27 which was the highest level since early January. On 02/19 the ratio fell to 2.64 which was the lowest since November 2012.
Supporting Charts: there is a big risk event this week. Please kepp this in mind reviewing the technical comments below.
Bonds: Last week TLT printed above its January high but found no further buying and this now looks like a rejected test.
Dollar Index: is today printing back below 93.95, the 1/2R off the May low in a weaker price location.
Gold: last week GLD attempted to break out above the April high and briefly printed its highest level since August 2014. This also look like a rejected test with Gold lower.
Oil: 06/09 USO printed its highest level since November and remains in an LT uptrend as long as it holds above 10.78.
EURUSD: is today printing back below 1.1313, the 4yr poc, in a weaker price location.There is Support just below 1.11 which is the 1/2R off last year’s low. Price below that level would suggest further weakness.
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