emini 22nd March 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Early in the month there was a rejected test of the major Value Area High (VAH) at 2818, the major pocs for both ES (2718) and SPY (272.49) were subsequently tested. These Support levels held and the market has rallied from there – back to probe above the VAH once again. I have been saying that “acceptance (time) at this level or above would be bullish” and that appears to be what we are seeing. As long as ES holds 2785.50 (3mn poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST and above 2718 ES remains in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 64% (from 60%), Nasdaq 58% (from 56%), R2000 56% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 19.38. Down from 20.19 on Tuesday which was the highest ratio since 4th October. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: held 121.0, the major poc, for nine days and on Thursday closed at its highest level since 3rd Jan.
Dollar Index: is currently printing back above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high). Needs to hold this level to maintain a strong position in the ST but as long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD fell sharply from there to very nearly test the major 121 Support. LT position is strong if GLD holds this poc.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: on Thursday broke back below 1.3130, the major poc Support but has today recovered that level. Likely to be volatile but needs to hold 1.3130 to stay in a strong position.
EURUSD: has fallen sharply today to test 1.131, the maj poc.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
