emini 24th January 2020
Aggressive Buying (green) was marked twice last week. First sign of technical weakness would now be a day-session close below 3302.75.0, that is the 01/16 Buying day low (dashed line).
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 63% (from 66%), Nasdaq 66% (uncg), R2000 60% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 23.37. On 12/27 the index reached 28.62, the highest reading in my database. Only twice before has the ratio printed above 26. Once in Jan 2018 and the market sold-off quickly, and once in Aug 2018 after which the market traded sideways for a month and then sold-off. In the ST the ratio has fallen since 12/27 while SPX has rallied further.
Bonds – TLT: On 01/13 the 12mn poc migrated to 138.25. TLT closed above that level on Thursday at its highest level since 3rd December.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price is currently above that level.
Gold: since early this month GLD has been probing 146.50, the major VAH. I have written “acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive but as we know, rejections are common at VAH’s”. There has been no rejection so far. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: USO has declined this month and closed on Thursday below 11.66 (2yr poc). There is further, more important, Support at 11.41 (maj poc).
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position.
EURUSD: early this month probed the 1.12 poc again. Price above that level would be a stronger location but that probe has been rejected so far.
Dollar Index: on 10/01 DXY probed the Maj Value Area High at 99.50. As I wrote at the time “price will often be rejected from these Maj VAHs”. Chart declined from that high through October and then rallied back to test the 1/2R at 98.4 and failed at that Resistance. As I have been writing “New trends often start with a rejected test at the 50% retracement so I’m watching price action from here”. The 3yr poc migrated to 97.38 in December and price is currently above that level.
Gold: since early this month GLD has been probing 146.50, the major VAH. I have written “acceptance (time) at or above this level would be a further positive but as we know, rejections are common at VAH’s”. There has been no rejection so far. There is major Support now at 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high.
Oil: USO has declined this month and closed on Thursday below 11.66 (2yr poc). There is further, more important, Support at 11.41 (maj poc).
GBPUSD: rallied strongly from early October. In December the major poc migrated to 1.2933 and GBPUSD needs to hold that Support to remain in a strong position.
EURUSD: early this month probed the 1.12 poc again. Price above that level would be a stronger location but that probe has been rejected so far.
