emini 26th June 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
On Tuesday I marked Aggressive Selling (red-at-bottom) for the first time this year. This was marked below the minor poc at 2957, see yesterday’s comments, but above the 6mn poc at 2887, so in the longer timeframe this is Reactive Selling and suggests that 2887 is likely to be tested. Price below that level would be a weaker location in the longer timeframe. Breadth numbers have weakened, see below, and see Sentiment.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 49% (from 51%), Nasdaq 37% (from 39%), R2000 35% (from 36%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 23.16. SPY has closed lower for three days and the ratio has been higher each day. In the ST that is not normally a supportive pattern. The ratio fell to 11.58 on 06/06, a three month low, having reached 23.93 on the 7th May, a seven month high.
Bonds – TLT: tested 132.80, the maj VAH, over last few days. Possible rejection here but acceptance (time) at this level would be a positive indication.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00. Chart broke below that level last week and is in a weaker position.
Gold: I had been writing that “GLD is again testing 127.15, the major VAH, Acceptance (time) at this level rather than rejection (as in February) would be a bullish indication.” On Tuesday GLD closed above 134 at its highest level since 2013.
Oil: USO – recovered back above 11.41, the major poc, Bulls would want to see this level hold now.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. Early last week GBPUSD printed its lowest level since early January but has rallied back from there.
EURUSD: at the end of last week EURUSD rallied back above 1.1310, the Major poc, and is now in a stronger position. A higher low above that level would indicate further strength.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.65. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level.
