emini 2nd April 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
There has been another probe above 2818, the major Value Area High (VAH) and this time there appears to be acceptance (time) at these higher levels which is a a bullish indication. There is minor Support at 2817.50, the 1mn poc and more impoortant Support at 2792.50, the 3mn poc. Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked on Monday. Breadth numbers have improved, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 65% (from 56%), Nasdaq 56% (from 50%), R2000 53% (from 47%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.42. Down from 20.19 on 03/18, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: on Thursday TLT printed its highest level since December ’17. Was sharply lower on Monday but as long as it holds above 121.0 (maj) it is in a strong LT position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) in a strong position in the ST. As long as index prints above 94.80 (maj) it is in a strong position in the LT.
Gold: GLD – All year GLD has been consolidating above 121, the major Support. This could be a powerful pattern and lead to higher prices, especially if the dollar starts to weaken. GLD was sharply lower at the end of last week and needs to hold 121 to retain a strong position.
Oil: USO – tested 11.41, the Major Poc Support on 03/08. Formed a higher low at that Support and has rallied to close on Monday at its highest level since November. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: likely to be volatile and needs to recover above 1.3130 to be in a strong position.
EURUSD: price relative to 1.131, the maj poc, is most important to monitor and currently chart is printing below this level in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance. Still in a weak position.
