Wednesday 2nd January 2019 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Equities bounced last week but Significant Buying (green-at-top) has yet to be marked. Sentiment measures have been indicating levels of bearishness consistent with those often seen at market lows but after a sell-off like this I need to see more evidence that Bulls are regaining control. Pre-open today ES has printed below 2455. There is minor Support at 2420.00 which is the 1/2R off the December low. Price below that level would suggest a re-test of that low. Other charts may offer clues over the next few days with Gold (GLD) and Bonds (TLT) reaching important levels.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 14%, Nasdaq 15%, R2000 13%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 6.11. Friday’s ratio at 5.67 was the lowest since July 2016. The high was 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: using 30minute data the major migrated lower from 121.0 to 118.84 earlier in the month. With time at 121.0 it could easily migrate back to that level. Note there has been no clear rejection from 121. Price above that level would put TLT in a stronger postion in the LT. Note that today Futures indicate a higher open for TLT – above 121.
Dollar Index: as long as DXY prints above 94.80, the major poc, it is in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – last week GLD printed its highest level since June and closed on Friday above the 121.00 Resistance, the major poc. “If” GLD can print time above this level it would be in a stronger position.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and fell sharply lower from there. Last week USO printed its lowest level since July 2017. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: as described on Friday, GBPUSD had bounced since the test of 1.2481 (30mn poc). Currently it prints above that level but is weaker today.
EURUSD: chart has been having a problem printing above 1.1450, the 1/2R, but is being Supported by the 1.1310 level (previously a major controlling price).
USDJPY: the major controlling price recently migrated to 112.60. Chart is currently printing below that level in a weak price location.
