emini 31st December 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Equities bounced last week but Significant Buying (green-at-top) has yet to be marked. Sentiment measures have been indicating levels of bearishness consistent with those often seen at market lows but after a sell-off like this I need to see more evidence that Bulls are regaining control. Other charts may offer clues over the next few days with Gold (GLD) and Bonds (TLT) reaching important Resistance, GBPUSD up from Support and USDJPY moving weaker, see below.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 11%, Nasdaq 12%, R2000 11%. Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 5.67, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds: TLT – 28th Dec: using 30minute data the major migrated lower from 121.0 to 118.84 earlier in the month. With time at 121.0 it could easily migrate back to that level. Note there has been no clear rejection from 121. Price above that level would put TLT in a stronger postion in the LT.
Dollar Index: as long as DXY prints above 94.80, the major poc, it is in a strong LT price location.
Gold: GLD – last week GLD printed its highest level since June and probed the Resistance at 121.00, the major poc. “If” GLD can print time above this level it would be in a stronger position.
Oil: USO – on 12/07 chart found Resistance at 11.41, the Major Poc and fell sharply lower from there. Last week USO printed its lowest level since July 2017. This is an important chart. Equity Bulls as well would want to see a recovery back above 11.41.
GBPUSD: as described on Friday, GBPUSD had bounced since the test of 1.2481 (30mn poc) – today it has rallied further.
EURUSD: chart is having a problem printing above 1.1450, the 1/2R but is being Supported by the 1.1310 level (previously a major controlling price). Time above that 1/2R would indicate strength.
USDJPY: the major controlling price recently migrated to 112.60. Chart is currently printing below that level in a weak price location.
