emini 3rd July 2019

emini 3rd July 2019

Following the Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) on Friday (see Monday’s pre-open comments) ES generated a higher, wider Value Area on Monday and an “inside” Value Area on Tuesday. First Level Support is at 2927.00, the 1month poc. As long as price holds this level it is in a strong location.

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 62% (from 65%), Nasdaq 56% (from 58%), R2000 54% (from 59%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 20.58 (from 22.6). Last few days the rtio has fallen and SPX has rallied. Not a bearish pattern in the ST. The 9month high for the ratio is at 23.93, recorded early May. The ratio fell to 11.58 on 06/06, a three month low, having reached 23.93 on the 7th May, a seven month high.

Bonds – TLT: has been probing 132.80, the maj VAH, over last two weeks and has not seen rejection, so far. Acceptance (time) at this level is a positive indication.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00. Chart broke below that level on 20th June and is in a weaker position.
Gold: Last week GLD printed above 135 to its highest level since 2013.
Oil: USO – 06/20 the chart recovered back above 11.41, the major poc, Bulls would want to see this level hold now.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. 06/18 chart printed its lowest level since early January.
EURUSD: on Monday chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc. A higher low above that level would indicate further strength but for now EURUSD is back in a weaker position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.65. Chart is currently in a weak position below that level.