emini 3rd May 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
See Friday’s comments (highlighted). Friday’s session generated a Value Area just below 2672, the 12mn poc. (Note that 2672 is the 1/2R off the February low for the ES June contract as well.) Aggressive Buying marked above that poc would be a positive but we also need to see ES printing above the high of the Aggressive Selling day on 04/24, which has not happened yet. This is at 2684 (dashed line). Monday’s session opened above the 2672 poc and immediately sold-off; Tue and Wed Value Areas were printed below that level. ES is in a weak price location and Bulls would want to see it printing back above 2672 asap.
First Level Resistance = 2672 (12mn poc)
Second Level Resistance = 2647 (4mn poc)
Index ETFs: SPY 264.50 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 48%), Nasdaq 47% (from 46%), R2000 51% (from 50%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 18.22 (from 20.0). Up from 13.93 on 04/18, a 43 day low which indicated some nervousness from the Rydex traders. I’ve been concerned that we didn’t see any fear registering in March as the market fell but on 04/16 Bull fund assets fell to their lowest level since October.
Bonds: TLT – is printing below 121.00, the major poc, in a weak price location and this week has been rejected from the 1/2R Resistance off the February low.
Dollar Index: has reached its highest level since early January.
Gold – GLD: The 4mn poc is at 125.23. GLD has broken below that level and is currently in a weaker price location.
Oil: USO – recently printed its highest level since November 2015 and is currently holding close to that high. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.79, the 12mn poc.
GBPUSD: recently probed 1.4212, the major Value Area High, for the second time this year and was rejected again. Last week broke the Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) and has now broken the Support trendline off the 2016 low.
EURUSD: as explained in the video on 04/20, the major poc migrated to 1.2330. Since that point EURUSD has been printing below that level in a weaker price location.
USDJPY: The 6mn poc for this chart migrated to 107 two weeks ago and the chart is printing up from that level.
