Thursday 5th September
See Friday’s highlighted comments. Last week the 15mn poc migrated to 2927. Price relative to that level is important to monitor. Wednesday’s Value Area was printed entirely above 2927 and Aggressive Buying (green) was marked. These are indications of strength. as long as ES holds above that level it is in a strong position.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 42% (from 35%), Nasdaq 35% (from 32%), R2000 36% (from 32%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly higher at 14.39. Tuesday’s ratio at 14.0 was the lowest since 10th June. Down from 24.14 on 07/29, a 10month high.
Bonds – TLT: 07/31 TLT spiked above 132.80, the maj Value Area High and has rallied powerfully reaching a new high last week.
Dollar Index: w/e 06/14 the three year poc migrated to 97.00 – now Support. The July high has been tested this week but today the index is printing back below that level.
Gold: GLD has rallied strongly to its highest level since early 2013 and is now printing above 143.0, the 1/2R off 2011 high in a strong position. Time above this level would be a further indication of LT strength.
Oil: USO – closed on Tuesday back below 11.41, the major poc. Bulls would want to see USO printing above that important level.
GBPUSD: The 1/2R off this year’s low at 1.2910, was broken in mid-May and chart fell sharply from there. In July the chart broke below 1.2481, the 30mn poc, and on Monday printed the lowest level since October 2016. Has rallied strongly from there.
EURUSD: in early July the chart broke back below 1.1310, the Major poc which put EURUSD back in a weaker position. On Tuesday printed its lowest level since May 2017. Has rallied from there.
USDJPY: is printing below 108.90, the major 1/2R off the 2016 low.
