emini 6th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Monday’s session generated a Value Area back above 2686, the 3mn poc, and Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) was marked. This is stronger location than Friday’s VA and Bulls would want to see the March contract now holding above that level and also improvement in the Pulse chart – currently the Breadth section is negative.
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 31% (from 26%), Nasdaq 45% (from 41%), R2000 38% (from 34%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 22.61. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: The 2mn poc is at 126.60. Price relative to that level is important to monitor. Cash gold indicates a higher open for GLD today.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but last week a probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 2mn poc is at 1.3955, and currently the chart prints just below that level.
EURUSD: broke back above 1.2264, the 2mn poc, on Friday. Strong price location if it holds that level.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and on Friday printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
