emini 8th March 2019 pre-open from ChartProfit
Overnight on Wednesday the 3month poc migrated slightly lower to 2785.5. Both Wed and Thu Value Areas were generated entirely below that level. This is weak ST price location. The big Support is at 2718 (maj poc). ES needs to hold this level to remain in a strong LT price location.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 67% (from 73%), Nasdaq 64% (from 71%), R2000 62% (from 69%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio slightly lower at 18.53. Down from 18.68, a 4 month high. On 9th Jan the ratio fell to 5.54, the lowest since July 2016. Down from 27.5 in early September.
Bonds – TLT: closed just above 121.0, the major poc, on Thursday. Futures indicate that TLT will open above that level today. TLT needs to hold above that level to stay in a strong position.
Dollar Index: is printing above 96.38 (the minor 1/2R off December high) and this is First Level Support. Index is close to that December high
Gold: GLD – previously I wrote that GLD had reached the major Value Area High (VAH) at 127.15 and said that “this could cap the upside until the maj poc (currently at 121) migrates higher”. GLD has fallen sharply since then and has printed close to the 121 Support. Cash indicates GLD will open higher today.
Oil: USO – has been printing above 11.41, the Major Poc. This is an important chart. If USO is printing above 11.41 it is a positive for risk-on.
GBPUSD: The major poc (measured on a 30minute basis) migrated back up to 1.3130 earlier in the week. Is printing below that level in a weaker location.
EURUSD: the Maj Support at 1.131 (maj poc) was broken on Thursday. EURUSD is now in a weak position.
USDJPY: the major poc is at 112.60. Chart has approached (but not exceeded) that Resistance.
