emini analysis 10th August 2016 – pre-open Chartprofit
Tuesday’s session generated a higher / overlapping Value Area and a new high for ES. The 2month poc is at 2160.50 and ES needs to hold this level to maintain a strong price location. Significant Buying (green) marked above that poc would be a further positive.
Dayframe: the v minor poc (11 day) migrated to 2176.00. For ST traders, price relative to this level would be worth monitoring today.
ETFs: Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major stock index ETFs is still heading down. A positive confirmation would be to see this indicator turn up.
First Level Support = 2160.50 (2mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2087.00 (major poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 69% (from 71%), Nasdaq 69% (from 70%), R2000 69% (from 70%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 7.41. Monday’s ratio at 7.74 was a seven month high. Bear fund assets that I follow are close to a twelve month low and on Monday Bull fund assets reached their highest level for the year to date. The Rydex traders are becoming much more optimistic and this is often a warning sign.
Supporting Charts:
Bonds: On Tuesday TLT was higherbut closed in a ST weak price location below 140.30, the min 1/2R off the July high. Price printing time back above that level would be a positive. More important Support is at 130.77 (3year poc).
Dollar Index: last week tested the important Support at 95.25 (2yr poc) and has so far held. This week a probe up into the 1/2R Resistance off the November high at 96.21 has been rejected.
Gold: On Tuesday GLD closed below 128.13, the minor 1/2R off the July high but cash indicates GLD will open above that level today. In the LT as long as the chart holds above 118.22 (maj poc) it is in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – is printing below 10.78, the 9mn poc and very close to 10.06, the 1/2R off February’s low. Crude Futures (Sep) has held the 1/2R off the February low and has bounced – this is a good chart to follow for a while and has so far not broken down.
EURUSD: Currently printing below 1.1313, the 4yr poc but this week the 1/2R Support off last year’s low at 1.11 has held.
