emini analysis 10th March 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Thurday’s session generated a lower Value Area and the Support at 2360 was tested (please note that First Level Support has now migrated slightly higher to 2365). The intraday tick numbers were negative for the sixth consecutive day but those based on price were positive. In the longer timeframe all the Selling over the last six days can be considered Reactive since it took place above the poc Support. ES rallied overnight and has rallied further pre-open following jobs data, currently printing above 2375, the minor Resistance. Bulls would hope that level holds as Support today. Effective Selling marked below 2365 would likely indicate something more serious in the longer timeframe. This is a possibility considering the recent Sentiment excesses.
Momentum (PriceOsc) for all four major ETFs, although still positive (except IWM) is down. IWM had been printing above 136.70, the 2mn poc, for three weeks but has closed below that Support in a weak price location for the last two days.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 13.34, approaching 14.02 recorded last week. There is only one ratio higher than this in the database. One surprise this week came in the AAII (public) poll which saw Bears% sharply higher at 46.5% (from 35.6%) which is the highest Bears% since the market low in February 2016.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46% (from 49%), Nasdaq 44% (from 45%), R2000 36% (from 38%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Supporting Charts – see today’s video.
click graphic to enlarge
