emini analysis 11th May 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
The current (minor) price distribution (approx. one month) with poc at 2385, looks compete or near to completion. Therefore in the ST timeframe it is important to monitor price relative to that poc. In the LT as long as ES holds above 2353 (3month poc) it is in a strong price location.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 10.18. The 50 day low is at 8.98. On 1st March the ratio reached 14.02, the second highest ratio in the database.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 55% (from 50%), Nasdaq 55% (from 56%), R2000 53% (from 52%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – printing below 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a weaker price location. Key Chart.
Dollar Index: rallied back from the March low to probe 101.00, the major poc, in early April. That probe into Resistance was rejected. Chart remains in a weak price location but printed a fourteen day high today.
Gold: last week GLD broke below119.84, the maj poc, and also below 119.07, the 1/2R off last year’s high. Weak price location. Printed a 38day low on Wednesday.
Oil: USO – The 1/2R off 2016 low at 10.06 was broken last week. This is now Resistrance. Bulls would want to see USO back above that level. If not Oil could become a problem for equities. Key chart.
GBPUSD: In the LT, as long as chart holds above above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location. On Monday printed its highest level since September – lower today.
EURUSD: last month the chart tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Chart is in a strong price location above that level.
USDJPY: has been printing below 113.61, the 4mn poc, in a weak price location since early March but this week has broken above that Resistance.
click to enlarge graphic
