emini analysis 12th July 2017 – pre-open
Please read previous comments. The 6wk Value Area Low at 2419 (dashed line) was tested on Tuesday but ES recovered quickly and the Value Area of the session ws printed entirely above that level. The one month poc has migrated to 2424.00.
Pre-open today ES has reached as high as 2436.50, the 6wk poc Resistance. Price above this level would be strong price location.
Resistance = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
Minor Support = 2424.00 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2384 (5mn poc)
Second Level LT Support = 2353 (poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was slightly lower at 11.35. The ratio reached 15.21 on 06/30, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 53% (from 52%), Nasdaq 55% (from 53%), R2000 54% (from 53%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. 06/30 the index printed its lowest level since October and tested the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc. Up off that level. Price printing time below 95.57 would be a negative.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. Currently the chart has had a problem printing above 1.2936, the 5month Value Area High.
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.
click graphic to enlarge
