emini analysis 12th March 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Note: in tomorrow’s chart I will start showing the June contract. I have altered the 1month poc Support level and the 1/2R from the Jan high to the levels relevant to the new contract.
Last week ES (Mar) briefly tested 2686, the 3month Support, which held. The last five Value Areas have been printed above the 1/2R off the January high – this level is 2708 on the June contract. ES is currently probing above 2760, the 4mn VAH. Price acceptance at this higher level would be bullish. In the LT, ES needs to hold 2686 (3mn) to remain in a strong price location.
Minor Support = 2728.00 (1mn June contract)
Support 1 = 2686.00 (3mn) Support 2 = 2581.00 (6mn)
Market Charts: All U.S. major Market Charts turned positive last week.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 46%, Nasdaq 61%, R2000 54% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio ended the week at 19.65. The Ratio fell to 10.94 on 02/15, a four month low. The Ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest in the database.
Bonds: TLT – 02/07 TLT broke below 119.00, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level since then. Bond Sentiment is very bearish at the moment which may set up a contrarian bullish stance but risk of further declines remains high if TLT is below 119.00.
Dollar Index: 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low. There is now a 3mn poc at 89.59 and the index currently prints just above that level.
Gold – GLD: The 4mn poc migrated to 125.23. GLD closed just below that level on Friday.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but fell from there with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong LT price location above 11.41, the maj poc but a recent probe above 12.78, the 3mn poc, was rejected.
GBPUSD: The 3mn poc migrated to 1.3896 and currently the chart is printing at that level.
EURUSD: broke back above 1.2264, the 2mn poc last week. Strong price location if it holds that level. Printing close today.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and 03/02 printed its lowest level since Nov 2016.
