emini analysis 13th July 2017

Please read previous comments. Wednesday’s entire Value Area was printed above 2436.50, the 6wk poc. As long as ES holds above this level (now Support) it is in a strong price location.

First Level Support = 2436.50 (6wk poc)
Second Level Support = 2384 (5mn poc)

Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was unchanged at 11.35. Bull fund assets that I follow reached a 55day low. The ratio reached 15.21 on 06/30, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.

Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 53%), Nasdaq 62% (from 55%), R2000 60% (from 54%). Numbers >50 are supportive.

Bonds: TLT – 06/26 TLT printed its highest level since November but has fallen back from there. Support is at 121.63, the 8mn poc.
Dollar Index: KEY CHART. the index has today printed its lowest level since October and once again tested the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc. Price printing time below 95.57 would be a negative for the dollar.
Gold: in mid-June GLD closed back below 119.84, the maj poc, and has been printing below that level in a weak price location since then. GLD needs to recover this level to regain a strong price location.
Oil: USO – printing below 10.28, the 4mn poc, in a LT weak price location. On 06/21 USO printed its lowest level since Feb 2016. Key chart.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.2478, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT. Currently the chart has had a problem printing above 1.2936, the 5month poc (and 15mn Value Area High).
EURUSD: in April EURUSD tested the Support at 1.0597, the 7mn poc, and held. Has rallied from there and is currently printing above 1.1329, the maj poc which is now Support.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc recently migrated to 111.30 and price relative to that level is now important to monitor. Currently printing above that level in a strong price location.

click to enlarge graphic