emini analysis 13th October 2017 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Significant Selling (red) has not been marked for 38 days. Within that period Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) has been marked six times and the market is higher so this is Effective Buying. As long as ES holds above 2503 (1 month poc) it is in a strong price location in the ST. First sign of ST weakness would be Effective Significant Selling (red) on the profile.
Dayframe: A minor (18day) poc has emerged at 2549. Intraday strength/weakness could be assessed from that level today.
Support = 2503 (1mn poc)
First Level LT Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 13.40. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. Last week VIX closed at its lowest level on record and this week Investors Intelligence Bulls/Bears ratio hit 4.0 which is an extreme. See today’s video for more.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 76% (unch), Nasdaq 78% (from 79%), R2000 81% (from 82%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – 09/08 TLT reached its highest level since November but has retraced from there to print a nine week low last week. There is Support at 123.40, the 9mn poc, and this was tested (but held) last week.
Dollar Index: printed a 2month high last week. The 8mn poc migrated to 93.46 last week. The index is printing back below that level now.
Gold: 09/07 GLD printed its highest level since September – has retraced from there to print a six week low last Friday and briefly test the Major Support at 119.84 but has rallied back a little from there.
Oil: USO – closed on Thursday above 10.14, the major poc Support.
GBPUSD: 09/20 GBPUSD printed its highest level since June 2016. Retraced from there but is now printing back above 1.3234 (1/2R) which is now First Level Support. The 9mn poc is at 1.2925 and this is Support.
EURUSD: 09/08 printed its highest level since Jan 2015. Retraced from there to approach the August low but has rallied back this week.
USDJPY: 111.30 is the 2year poc – for three weeks the chart has been printing above that level which is now Support. Stronger price location. The 1/2R off the December high is at 112.98 – the chart is currently having a problem overcoming that minor Resistance.
click to enlarge graphic
