emini analysis 13th September 2017 – pre-open
Following Monday’s Aggressive Buying, Tuesday generated a higher Value Area and a new high for ES (and SPY). In the LT as long as ES holds above the 2436.50 poc it is in a strong price location.
First Level Support = 2464.00 (3mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 12.33. On 08/22 the ratio reached 15.64 which is the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 59% (from 57%), Nasdaq 54% (from 50%), R2000 51% (from 47%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location. On Thursday TLT closed at its highest level since November but has fallen back from there.
Dollar Index: 07/14 chart broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply – on Friday printed its lowest level since early 2015.
Gold: On Friday GLD closed at its highest level since September – has retraced a little from there.
Oil: USO – the major poc is at 10.14. USO is printing below that level in a weak LT price location.
GBPUSD: in the ST as long as charts holds above 1.2884, the 5mn poc, it is in a strong price location. Is today printing above the August high and earlier today printed its highest level since September.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. On Friday printed its highest level since Jan 2015.
USDJPY – Key Chart: 111.30 is the 2year poc – Chart prints below that level in a weak price location. The 108.87 Support (1/2R off 2016 low) was broken on Thursday but chart has recovered back above that level.
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