emini analysis 14th February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Dayframe: pre-open yesterday I wrote that the minor poc at 2634.50 could “be used as a ST reference level today”. That was the low of Tuesday’s session. Pre-open today that level has been tested again following a quick sell-off from the 2670 area.
In the longer term the 5mn Support at 2581 is the level to watch. So far Value Areas have been generated above that price, see chart. First sign of strength would would Significant Buying (green) marked above the 3mn Resistance at 2688. A Value Area printed below 2581 would be an indication of further weakness.
Resistance = 2704 (1/2R off Jan high)
Resistance = 2688.00 (3mn poc)
Support = 2581.00 (5mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 23% (from 21%), Nasdaq 29% (from 26%), R2000 23% (from 22%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower at 13.18, the lowest since 10/24. The ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – Has been printing below 119.00, the major Support (maj poc) for a few days which is a weak position. Bond Bulls would want to see this level recovered quickly.
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. On 01/26 the index printed its lowest level since December 2014. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. Closed last five days below 126.60, the 2mn poc in a ST weaker location – price back above that level would be a stronger position.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but was sharply lower last week in line with the equity sell-off.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016. Has come lower from there and printed a seventeen day low on Friday.
EURUSD: in December chart tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held. 01/25 printed its highest level since December 2014. Off a little last week to test the Support at 1.2264, the 2mn poc – but has not broken that Support yet.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Chart has now broken below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakens the price location.
