emini analysis 16th February 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Thursday’s session generated another higher Value Area, this time above 2686, the 3mn poc, and Aggressive Buying was marked again. ES has retraced more than 50% of the recent decline and that halfway point at 2704, is also Support. In the longer term the 5mn Support at 2581 is the level to watch. So far Value Areas have been generated above that price, see chart. A Value Area printed below 2581 would be an indication of further weakness. Breadth and PriceMomentum need to improve, see Pulse chart.
Support 1 = 2704 (1/2R off Jan high)
Support 2 = 2686.00 (3mn poc)
Support 3 = 2581.00 (5mn poc)
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 37% (from 32%), Nasdaq 46% (from 39%), R2000 37% (from 32%). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was lower again at 10.40, a four month low. The ratio reached 27.55 on 01/30, the highest ratio in the database.
Bonds: TLT – Had been printing below 119.00, the major Support (maj poc) for a few days which is a weak position. Futures indicate a stronger open today for TLT
Dollar Index: in early July chart broke below 95.50, the major poc = weak LT price location. 12/28 broke below the 1/2R Support off the Sep low and then broke the September low. Earlier today the index printed its lowest level since December 2014. There is Support at 87.25 which is the 1/2R off 2008 low.
Gold – GLD: in mid December the major poc migrated back up to 121.00 – the chart rallied strongly from there and on 01/25 printed its highest level since August 2016. After dipping GLD closed back above 126.60, the 2mn poc, on Wednesday in a strong price location.
Oil: USO – 01/25 chart reached its highest level since November 2015 but was sharply lower last week in line with the equity sell-off. Remains in a strong price location above 11.41, the maj poc.
GBPUSD: 01/25 reached its highest level (1.4344) since June 2016.
EURUSD: in December chart tested the 1 year poc Support at 1.1755 and held. Earlier today broke above the January high to print its highest level since December 2014.
USDJPY: two failed probes into the 113.70 maj poc Resistance in December and has been printing below 111.30, the 2yr poc, in a weak price location since then. Earlier in the month the chart broke below the 1/2R off the 2016 low which further weakened the price location and today printed at its lowest level since Nov 2016.
