emini analysis 16th May 2018 – pre-open from Chartprofit
Please see previous highlighted comments. I have marked Aggressive Buying (green-at-top) four times in the last eight days and the market is higher indicating this is Effective Buying in the dayframe. The last five Value Areas have been generated above 2672, the 12mn poc, and as long as ES holds above that level it is in a strong price location. On 05/03 the 7mn Value Area Low at 2595 was tested, see previous comments. Note that the 7mn Value Area High is at 2746 (dashed line). This could stall the current rally, but price acceptance at that level would be a positive.
First Level Support = 2672 (12mn poc)
Second Level Support = 2647 (4mn poc)
Index ETFs: SPY 266.00 = 9mn; IWM 153.50 = 1year
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 57% (from 61%), Nasdaq 58% (unch), R2000 60% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Sentiment: My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was higher at 19.71. On 04/18, the ratio fell to 13.93, a 43 day low.
Bonds: TLT – is printing below 121.00, the major poc, in a weak LT price location. Fell sharply on Tuesday.
Dollar Index: has today reached its highest level since December.
Gold – GLD: Closed below 125.23, the 4mn poc, on Monday, and fell sharply on Tuesday.
Oil: USO – On Tuesday printed its highest level since November 2015. First sign of weakness would be time printed below 12.79, the 12mn poc.
GBPUSD: in mid April the major Value Area High at 1.4212 was probed for the second time this year and was rejected again. The Support at 1.3965 (6mn poc) was then broken and at the end of last month the Support trendline off the 2016 low was broken.
EURUSD: as explained in the video on 04/20, the major poc migrated to 1.2330. Since that point EURUSD has been printing below that level in a weaker price location and last week printed it lowest level since December. There is Support at 1.1755, the 1year poc.
USDJPY: The 6mn poc for this chart migrated to 107 four weeks ago and the chart is printing up from that level. On Tuesday the chart printed its highest level since early February.
