emini analysis 17th August 2017 – pre-open
Last Thursday’s sell-off was halted at the First Level Support at 2436.50. ES has rallied from there and during Wednesday’s session First Level Resistance at 2474 was reached but not exceeded. Time printed above that level would be a positive, see yesterday’s highlighted comments. Also the Pulse Chart needs to improve – currently daily price momentum for SPY is negative and down and the Breadth indicator is red.
First Level Resistance = 2474.00 (2mn poc)
First Level Support = 2436.50 (7mn poc)
Sentiment:My version of the Rydex Assets Ratio was almost unchanged at 12.42. On Friday Bull fund assets that I follow reached the highest level for the year to date. On 06/30 the ratio reached 15.21, the highest in the database. The ratio reaching a new high has historically been a warning for the market.
Stocks>50dyma numbers: Nyse 47% (from 46%), Nasdaq 39% (from 38%), R2000 36% (unch). Numbers >50 are supportive.
Bonds: TLT – since mid-May TLT has been printing above 121.63, the 8mn poc, in a strong price location.
Dollar Index: 07/14 broke below the Support at 95.57, the 2yr poc, and then fell sharply. Chart remains below that level in a weak LT price location.
Gold: GLD is printing back above 119.84, the maj poc. As long as GLD prints above this level it is in a strong LT price location.
Oil: USO – the 4mn poc Resistance has been probed twice recently but has not been exceeded and chart is down from that level.
GBPUSD: as long as chart holds above 1.278, the maj poc, it is in a strong price location in the LT but in the ST, 1.2936, the 5month poc Support was broken on Monday which put the chart in a weaker ST position.
EURUSD: in early July EURUSD found higher low Support at 1.1329, the maj poc and has rallied strongly from there. Earlier this month chart reached its highest level since early 2015.
USDJPY: The 12mn poc is at 111.30. Currently the chart prints below that level in a weak price location.
click graphic to enlarge
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